Modernization Index
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Estonia

High structural capacity, prosperity matched by institutions.

0.775
Band 2 · High capacity

What stands out

Select any label for its definition and scoring rule.

P1InstitutionsP2ComplexityP3Human cap.P4EconomyP5Stability

Structural shape

Each spoke shows one pillar, with 0 at the center and 1 at the edge. The shape reveals whether the pillars are similar or whether one is much lower than the others. That difference is called the .

Read as Some imbalance · spread 0.25

Additional checks

1 flagged · 9/9 assessed

These checks add context that the overall score can miss. Select a check to see its result, the evidence behind it, and whether enough information was available to assess it.

Data-based checks

These two checks run automatically from the five pillars and public source data.

Case-specific checks

These checks need reviewed historical or political context. A result of “not assessed” means that review has not been completed.

These checks describe structural risk. They do not predict who will act first in a conflict. Differences smaller than 0.03 are treated as too close to rank when countries are compared head-to-head.

Additional diagnostics

Governance approach
High-capacity small system

combines strong institutions with a relatively small or less complex governing environment.

Main risk in this approach: Demographic/economic stagnation

Structural risk
lowfrom the scoring formula's structural checks
  • · Flagged checks: external threat
Change since 2014
DeclineScore -0.05 · largest change: P1

stability/income-led fall.

Short-term movement is noisy and often reverses. The current level and the durability gap are more informative than a recent change.

Weighting check · score under 4 sets of weights
0.775
Equal weights
0.791
Time-varying weights
0.778
Correlation weights
0.773
Archived manual weights

Largest difference across the weighting methods: 0.017. The country stays in the same score band in each check.

Try a different profile

Move a pillar to see how the overall score would change. You can also test different pillar weights. The published score uses equal weights of 20 percent each.

0.774
Band 2 · High capacity
published score
P1InstitutionsP2ComplexityP3Human cap.P4EconomyP5Stability
0.78
0.65
0.90
0.81
0.73

This tool changes the five published pillar values or their weights. It does not recalculate the pillars from the raw indicators, and it does not update the additional checks shown above.

External security context

reviewed for 2003
0.50moderate
threats from outside the country
Protected by an ally
whether a credible ally was expected to defend it
0.69high
capacity to respond after an external shock

MODERATE structural exposure, high response: relationally mid-risk on this axis.

What happened: Persists; NATO/EU member from 2004, no invasion.

The indicators behind the score

5/5 pillars · 2024
76.6
82.5
76.9
76
81.6
81.6
52.3
0.9
0.9
0.9
49,969
77.8
38.6

Select an indicator to see what it measures and where it comes from.

Countries with similar pillar profiles

These countries have the closest five-pillar pattern to Estonia. Similarity does not mean that their politics or histories are the same.

Compare Estonia head-to-head with any country →