Research
The country scores are one output of a larger research program. These pages examine global patterns, test whether historical change can be anticipated, compare how political orders rebuild, and explain how the pieces fit together. Failed tests are included because they narrow the claims the project can responsibly make.
State of the world
A global view of three improvement measures, the institutional setting around them, and recent changes in each.
Read →Are golden ages predictable?
A prediction recorded in advance that did not repeat in the reserved test data, followed by a review of the weaker pattern that remained.
Read →How orders rebuild after they fragment
A 30-case study comparing four ways political systems have reunited after fragmentation.
Read →How the pieces fit together
How the score, safeguards, historical tests, and open questions form one research program.
Read →Looking for how the score itself is built, or how far it can be trusted?