Modernization Index
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Syria

Low structural capacity, prosperity outrunning institutions, lopsided (institutions the weak point).

0.364
Band 4 · Low capacity

What stands out

Select any label for its definition and scoring rule.

P1InstitutionsP2no dataP3no dataP4EconomyP5Stability

Structural shape

Each spoke shows one pillar, with 0 at the center and 1 at the edge. The shape reveals whether the pillars are similar or whether one is much lower than the others. That difference is called the .

Read as Lopsided · spread 0.43

Additional checks

1 flagged · 2/9 assessed

These checks add context that the overall score can miss. Select a check to see its result, the evidence behind it, and whether enough information was available to assess it.

Data-based checks

These two checks run automatically from the five pillars and public source data.

Case-specific checks

These checks need reviewed historical or political context. A result of “not assessed” means that review has not been completed.

These checks describe structural risk. They do not predict who will act first in a conflict. Differences smaller than 0.03 are treated as too close to rank when countries are compared head-to-head.

Additional diagnostics

governance context has not been reviewed
Governance approach
Centralized control· Military/authoritarian suppression

manages political pressure through central control rather than shared authority.

Main risk in this approach: Violent fragmentation when control mechanisms weaken

Structural risk
criticalfrom the scoring formula's structural checks
  • · High concern: Institutions score is in the bottom third
  • · Watch: 0.431 gap between the highest and lowest pillars
  • · Flagged checks: income and institutions gap
Accountability check · exploratory
Accountability trails incomedifference from income: -0.39

Accountability trails income and state capacity. The available evidence is partial, so this remains a watch item.

This is an exploratory comparison. It is separate from the income and institutions gap and has not yet been tested against crisis outcomes.

Weighting check · score under 4 sets of weights
0.364
Equal weights
0.364
Time-varying weights
0.338
Correlation weights
0.369
Archived manual weights

Largest difference across the weighting methods: 0.031. The country stays in the same score band in each check.

Try a different profile

Move a pillar to see how the overall score would change. You can also test different pillar weights. The published score uses equal weights of 20 percent each.

0.364
Band 4 · Low capacity
published score
P1InstitutionsP2no dataP3no dataP4EconomyP5Stability
0.20
0.63
0.25

This tool changes the five published pillar values or their weights. It does not recalculate the pillars from the raw indicators, and it does not update the additional checks shown above.

The indicators behind the score

3/5 pillars · 2024

Not measured: Economic Complexity, Human Capital

18.8
25.8
23.4
13.4
4,772
25.4
24.5
6.4

Select an indicator to see what it measures and where it comes from.