Stories
These short case studies use familiar events to show how the framework works. They also note when the available evidence is thin or open to more than one reading.
The fall of Rome
A look at institutional strain, external pressure, and the limits of the surviving evidence.
writing in progressThe conquest of the Aztecs
How internal divisions, disease, and outside alliances changed the balance of power.
writing in progressThe post-Soviet split
Why Estonia, Russia, and Ukraine followed different paths after a shared political break.
writing in progressThe fall of Kabul
What happened when a state that relied heavily on outside support lost that support.
writing in progressThe Gulf War
How Kuwait's external alliances shaped the outcome after the invasion.
writing in progressVenezuela's collapse
How resource wealth and weakening institutions moved in opposite directions.
writing in progressThe Arab Spring
Why a regional protest wave produced very different outcomes across countries.
writing in progressThe two Koreas
A comparison of two states that began with similar conditions and developed very differently.
writing in progressThe Velvet Divorce
Why one national separation remained peaceful while other breakups became violent.
writing in progressEach story separates the known facts, the framework's reading, and the remaining uncertainty. Ancient cases are labeled as limited evidence because their records are less complete.